Conflict Intelligence

Conflict Intensity Tracker

Kurdistan Monitor publishes a weekly assessment of conflict intensity across all four parts of Kurdistan. Updated every Friday. Methodology is fully transparent and explained below.

Current assessment

No assessment published yet.

Intensity scale

Kurdistan Monitor uses a seven-level designation scale to assess conflict intensity. Each designation corresponds to a defined percentage range displayed in the tracker. Below is the full scale from lowest to highest.

Stable
0 — 10%
No active conflict, no emerging threat. The situation is fully settled with no indicators of imminent escalation.
Calm
11 — 25%
Generally peaceful. Minor background tensions are present but contained and not threatening to escalate.
Contained
26 — 35%
Low-level tensions present. No immediate threat, but the underlying conflict is unresolved and requires attention.
Monitor
36 — 50%
Potential risk emerging. Kurdistan Monitor is actively tracking developments. Situation could deteriorate without clear triggers.
Elevated
51 — 65%
Increased tensions. Threatening rhetoric, troop movements, or isolated incidents have been reported. Risk of escalation is real.
High
66 — 80%
Significant escalation. Active military activity or an imminent risk of violence. Situation is deteriorating and requires urgent attention.
Critical
81 — 100%
Active conflict. Strikes, military operations, or an immediate threat to life is underway. Maximum alert level.
Negotiations
Variable
Active formal or informal talks are underway. This designation can coexist with any intensity level — negotiations do not imply calm.

Methodology

Kurdistan Monitor’s conflict intensity designations are based on a weekly assessment of four parameters across each of the four Kurdistan regions — Rojhelat (Iran), Rojava (Syria), Bakur (Turkey), and Bashur (Iraq).

The four parameters assessed are: active military operations and incidents; political rhetoric and stated intentions; troop movements and military posture; and diplomatic activity and back-channel signals.

Each parameter is weighted and combined to produce an overall percentage score, which determines the designation level. The percentage reflects not just current intensity but trajectory — a region at 45% moving rapidly upward may be designated Monitor rather than Contained.

Assessments are based on Kurdistan Monitor’s exclusive source network across all four regions, cross-referenced with open-source reporting in Kurdish, Arabic, Turkish, Persian, and English.

Kurdistan Monitor operates with full editorial independence. Designations are made solely on the basis of verified information and our analytical judgement. We have no affiliation with any political party, government, or organisation.

The tracker is updated every Friday. Significant developments between weekly updates may trigger an interim revision, which will be noted in the assessment.

Assessment archive

All previous weekly assessments are archived below. Use the numbered navigation to browse past entries.

No archive entries yet.